Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 73 (Milton) , Major: 73 (Milton) Florida - Any: 73 (Milton) Major: 73 (Milton)

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

None

HypeScale: 0

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US

National Hurricane Center

You are not logged in. [Login]

Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

danielw
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)

Re: 10 day GFS Forecast
Thu Jun 14 2012 01:04 PM

Multiple long range models are hinting at a possible system in the Western Caribbean in the next week. Although I haven't seen any strong indications of a strong system. The CMC and GFS are hinting at a 850 mb level vortice. This would be near the 5,000 ft above sea level altitude.

Both the New Orleans,LA and Jackson,MS morning Area Forecast Discussion mention the possibility of tropical development in the W Caribbean or Bay of Campeche areas.

Further mention is in the Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion.
FXUS02 KWNH 141144
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
741 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

VALID 12Z MON JUN 18 2012 - 12Z THU JUN 21 2012
edited~danielw
CURRENT MJO ENTERING PHASES 8 AND 1 CONTINUES SHOWING FAVORABLE
VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AT H200 AND H850 OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX.
BROAD SCALE ANOMALOUS H850 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE TROPICAL EPAC
SUPPORTS DOWNSTREAM BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER TEH
WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND GULFMEX AIDING IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING VARIOUS FORMS OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH THE EPAC AND WRN CARIB/LOWER GLFMEX
BASINS AND EXPECT THAT SOME FORM OF TROPICAL DVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
OR BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE PERIOD OR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

All of the MJO forecasts that I have viewed indicate some development in the Western Caribbean in the next week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php

Post Extras

Print Post

Remind Me!

Notify Moderator

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
10 day GFS Forecast	danielw	Thu Jun 14 2012 01:04 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	Ed Dunham	Thu May 10 2012 11:56 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	scottsvb	Sun May 13 2012 01:31 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	M.A.	Tue Jun 12 2012 07:45 AM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	danielw	Thu Jun 14 2012 01:04 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	weathernet	Thu Jun 14 2012 11:23 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	doug	Fri Jun 15 2012 11:53 AM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	weathernet	Mon Jun 18 2012 07:52 AM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	LoisCane	Mon Jun 18 2012 12:02 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	doug	Wed Jun 20 2012 08:59 AM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	weathernet	Wed Jun 20 2012 02:40 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	weathernet	Thu Jun 21 2012 03:40 AM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	LoisCane	Thu Jun 21 2012 09:01 AM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	doug	Thu Jun 21 2012 11:00 AM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	danielw	Thu Jun 21 2012 11:52 AM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	MichaelA	Thu Jun 21 2012 01:51 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	LoisCane	Thu Jun 21 2012 12:58 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	doug	Thu Jun 21 2012 01:41 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	danielw	Thu Jun 21 2012 02:17 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	LoisCane	Thu Jun 21 2012 02:43 PM
RECON Tomorrow	danielw	Thu Jun 21 2012 02:48 PM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	NPR16	Thu Jun 21 2012 11:47 AM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	danielw	Thu Jun 21 2012 08:18 AM
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast	doug	Wed Jun 20 2012 03:10 PM

Extra information

0 registered and 6 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 14740

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center