10 day GFS Forecast - FLHurricane.com

The 12Z GFS 200 mb ( from this a.m ), depicts the 30-40kt. upper level winds near and to the north of Yucatan to abate at the 30hr. forecast point. In fact, there would appear to be a fairly conducive anticyclone situated near or off the Yucatan at about that time.

Meanwhile, satelite depicts a large area of persistant convection South of Cuba and stretching northward where a surface trough continues to become more pronounced. Upper level winds near and west of Key West are certainly not conducive for development, though surface pressures may continue to slowly fall over this diffuse and large area stretching down into the Caribbean. Of more interest to me is what appears to be a small mid level circulation over the N.E. tip of Yucatan. If not for land, upper air conditions for the very small area would appear to be more favorable for possible near term development. If this "swirl" were to steadily move north it would seem to encounter the more hostile conditions. However if this feature were to remain very close to its present latitude, than present conditions might not be so adverse. Perhaps bigger issue than even the ( relativly flat ) land, might be inflow issues caused by the broad trough of low pressure to its east.

Still, given the very tight size of this feature and assuming its integrity and maintained convection, I think that it would not be unreasonable to have another "small feature" tropical depression form perhaps immediately west or northwest of the Yucatan coast in the next day or two. I beleive that such a system could remain stationary for a couple days, and potentially develop further as the upper air conditions improve between 24-36 hr. from now.
Though I would not necessarily be too much more bullish than NHC's 20% likelihood for 48hr tropical cyclone developement, the Eastern area of convection that they are focused on would seem to me to have more of an "uphill fight" to organize given its overall large size.

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