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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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weathernet
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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast
      Thu Jun 21 2012 03:40 AM

0Z Euro is now on board with deepening the Yucatan low, and more worrisome is that the depiction of the systems would appear to approach Cat.2 ( possibly stronger). Much still needs to happen including an outright stall for a couple days. Such is what I was concerned about. Reminds me a little of Hurricane Elena in '85. Trough was slowly lifting, & eventually gave way to an impressive ridge which in turn pushed Elena back westward.

I will be surprised if this disturbed area is not designated as "an Invest" by mid a.m. I think it prudent for all those between Tampa and Houston to keep abreast. Seems like nothing is going to happen all too fast however. I don't think this will approach the Cat. 3 intensity that Elena did, however this system would appear to me to have a conderably larger envelope thus having the potential to cause storm surge issues and flooding to a fairly large piece of real estate. Am kinda "feeling Gulfport" at the moment.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator Thu Jun 21 2012 03:40 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 10 2012 11:56 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast scottsvb   Sun May 13 2012 01:31 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast M.A.   Tue Jun 12 2012 07:45 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 14 2012 01:04 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Thu Jun 14 2012 11:23 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Fri Jun 15 2012 11:53 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Mon Jun 18 2012 07:52 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Mon Jun 18 2012 12:02 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Wed Jun 20 2012 08:59 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Wed Jun 20 2012 02:40 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Thu Jun 21 2012 03:40 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 09:01 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:00 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:52 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast MichaelA   Thu Jun 21 2012 01:51 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 12:58 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Thu Jun 21 2012 01:41 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 02:17 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 02:43 PM
. * * RECON Tomorrow danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 02:48 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast NPR16   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:47 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 08:18 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Wed Jun 20 2012 03:10 PM

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