cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 96L Near North Yucatan Coast
Thu Jun 21 2012 03:26 PM
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Invest 96L.
In the near term, shear and interaction with the Yucatan will probably keep things in check, but once the shear relaxes a bit more, the bit of (flat) land to its south should be of little consequence, and it is conceivable that 96L will tight up into a depression as early as overnight tonight or tomorrow.
Given 96L's broad nature, it probably won't be able to spin up into a strong tropical storm today, but in time, with shear forecast to continue dropping, and with plenty of atmospheric moisture and warm water to draw from (see images below), a land-locked, slower moving 96L has the potential to produce very significant rains, at a minimum, and truly, there is more than a little potential for 96L to become a significant early season Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone.
Total Precipitable Water June 21, 2012
Above: Precipitable Water — The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of unit cross-sectional area extending between any two specified levels, commonly expressed in terms of the height to which that water substance would stand if completely condensed and collected in a vessel of the same unit cross section. (Read more...)
Sea Surface Temps June 21, 2012
Above: sea surface temperature—The temperature of the ocean surface. The term sea surface temperature is generally meant to be representative of the upper few meters of the ocean as opposed to the skin temperature, which is the temperature of the upper few centimeters.
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