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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
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danielwAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge
      Thu Jun 21 2012 10:32 PM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
228 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

VALID JUN 21/1200 UTC THRU JUN 25/0000 UTC


MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE IN TRACK/BELOW AVERAGE IN TIMING

THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD WHILE THE
12Z NAM/12Z UKMET LIE ON THE WEST SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEMS LOCATION
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN THE STRONGEST. THE 00Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z
ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE COL IN THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW /WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS
FLORIDA/. WHILE THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EVENTUAL STAIR-STEP TRACK
TOWARDS TEXAS /WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBRACED DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/...THE GFS
HAS OTHER IDEAS PARTICULARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR
NOW...PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE BEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO
MINIMIZE ERROR WHICH FAVORS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO A 12Z ECMWF/12Z
CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 1004 HPA WITH
THE KNOWLEDGE THAT ONCE THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST
STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT
RANGE/BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
PROGRESS AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON ITS EXPECTED TRACK
SHAPE...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS MODEL PREFERENCE DUE
TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ALONG-TRACK TIMING ERRORS. SEE THE LATEST
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR
CURRENT INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator Thu Jun 21 2012 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 26 2012 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge berrywr   Tue Jun 26 2012 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 26 2012 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 26 2012 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge DaViking   Tue Jun 26 2012 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge DaViking   Wed Jun 27 2012 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Wed Jun 27 2012 03:30 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Wed Jun 27 2012 04:48 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge JoshuaK   Wed Jun 27 2012 08:29 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Jun 27 2012 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge berrywr   Wed Jun 27 2012 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge HeadacheslayerInFL   Wed Jun 27 2012 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 27 2012 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge GlenJohnson   Wed Jun 27 2012 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Jun 28 2012 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jun 28 2012 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge berrywr   Thu Jun 28 2012 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Fri Jun 29 2012 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge doug   Thu Jun 28 2012 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge berrywr   Wed Jun 27 2012 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Wed Jun 27 2012 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge k___g   Fri Jun 22 2012 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Thu Jun 21 2012 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Invest 96L Near North Yucatan Coast B.C.Francis   Thu Jun 21 2012 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Jun 23 2012 07:22 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Jun 23 2012 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Jasonch   Thu Jun 21 2012 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Jun 21 2012 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jun 21 2012 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Jun 22 2012 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Fri Jun 22 2012 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Fri Jun 22 2012 07:59 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Jun 22 2012 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Fri Jun 22 2012 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Jun 22 2012 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Jun 22 2012 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 22 2012 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Fri Jun 22 2012 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge k___g   Fri Jun 22 2012 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 22 2012 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Jun 23 2012 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Jun 23 2012 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Jun 23 2012 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Jun 23 2012 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 23 2012 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 23 2012 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Jun 23 2012 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Jun 23 2012 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 23 2012 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Jun 23 2012 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 23 2012 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Jun 23 2012 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Jun 23 2012 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Jun 23 2012 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Jun 23 2012 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Jun 23 2012 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Jun 23 2012 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge srquirrely   Sat Jun 23 2012 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge GlenJohnson   Sat Jun 23 2012 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge kromdog   Sat Jun 23 2012 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sat Jun 23 2012 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jun 24 2012 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sun Jun 24 2012 02:06 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sun Jun 24 2012 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Sun Jun 24 2012 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jun 24 2012 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge GlenJohnson   Sun Jun 24 2012 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Sun Jun 24 2012 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Sun Jun 24 2012 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sun Jun 24 2012 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Sun Jun 24 2012 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jun 24 2012 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 25 2012 06:39 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge kromdog   Mon Jun 25 2012 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge k___g   Mon Jun 25 2012 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Jun 25 2012 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Mon Jun 25 2012 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge GlenJohnson   Mon Jun 25 2012 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge k___g   Mon Jun 25 2012 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 25 2012 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Jun 25 2012 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Mon Jun 25 2012 09:13 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Sun Jun 24 2012 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jun 24 2012 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge kromdog   Sun Jun 24 2012 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sat Jun 23 2012 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Jun 23 2012 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Fri Jun 22 2012 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Fri Jun 22 2012 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Jun 22 2012 07:47 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Thu Jun 21 2012 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Thu Jun 21 2012 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 03:19 PM

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