MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 228 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
VALID JUN 21/1200 UTC THRU JUN 25/0000 UTC
MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... PREFERENCE: 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE IN TRACK/BELOW AVERAGE IN TIMING
THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD WHILE THE 12Z NAM/12Z UKMET LIE ON THE WEST SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEMS LOCATION BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN THE STRONGEST. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE COL IN THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW /WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA/. WHILE THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EVENTUAL STAIR-STEP TRACK TOWARDS TEXAS /WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBRACED DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/...THE GFS HAS OTHER IDEAS PARTICULARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR NOW...PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE BEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO MINIMIZE ERROR WHICH FAVORS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO A 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 1004 HPA WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT ONCE THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE/BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO PROGRESS AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON ITS EXPECTED TRACK SHAPE...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS MODEL PREFERENCE DUE TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ALONG-TRACK TIMING ERRORS. SEE THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR CURRENT INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
0 registered and 238 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 53894
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge
Edit
Reply
Quote
