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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge
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Reged:
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge
      Fri Jun 22 2012 11:47 AM

Quote:

Where? Not a rhetorical question. The circulation migrated SE overnight and now may be under convection east of the YP. All the model runs will have to re-initialize after the system stablilzes. Also not much northerly drift presently for the main area of convection which has been parked in the channel for a couple of days. Waiting and watching.



Based on satellite, I have to concur that there would seem to be evidence of new LLC developing under the western edge of the convection just east (?) of the Northern tip of Yucatan. Don't think this changes present overall model spread for eventual motion, even though "that" still remains a questionmark. What might change however, is that this possible center being a bit farther east may be tucked a bit more under the upper level ridging. This would seem to aid in this systems development. May still be some lingering near term inflow issues while the larger broad low level swirl in the S. Central Gulf winds down, and am wondering if this is temporarily disrupting the point off Yucatan from becoming vertically stacked. Ongoing bursting of convection however will likely overcome those issues and once this does become a bit more of a vertically stacked system (tonight/tomm. a.m ?), than I think we will start to finally see a short term northward motion ensue.

While I still think that this system will eventually be shunted more westward, if I were in Tampa and points north into the Fla. Panhandle, I would'nt be adding any water to the pool for the next few days ( "Mother Nature" may well drop a few inches in for you!)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator Fri Jun 22 2012 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 26 2012 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge berrywr   Tue Jun 26 2012 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 27 2012 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jun 27 2012 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge DaViking   Wed Jun 27 2012 03:35 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge DaViking   Wed Jun 27 2012 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Wed Jun 27 2012 07:30 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Wed Jun 27 2012 08:48 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge JoshuaK   Wed Jun 27 2012 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Jun 27 2012 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge berrywr   Wed Jun 27 2012 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge HeadacheslayerInFL   Wed Jun 27 2012 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 27 2012 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge GlenJohnson   Thu Jun 28 2012 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Jun 28 2012 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jun 28 2012 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge berrywr   Fri Jun 29 2012 03:43 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Fri Jun 29 2012 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge doug   Thu Jun 28 2012 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge berrywr   Wed Jun 27 2012 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Wed Jun 27 2012 05:50 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge k___g   Sat Jun 23 2012 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Fri Jun 22 2012 01:24 AM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Invest 96L Near North Yucatan Coast B.C.Francis   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 05:12 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Jun 23 2012 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Jun 23 2012 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Jasonch   Thu Jun 21 2012 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Jun 21 2012 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 22 2012 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 22 2012 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Jun 22 2012 06:24 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Fri Jun 22 2012 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Fri Jun 22 2012 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Jun 22 2012 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Fri Jun 22 2012 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Jun 22 2012 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Jun 22 2012 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 22 2012 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Fri Jun 22 2012 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge k___g   Fri Jun 22 2012 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Jun 23 2012 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Jun 23 2012 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Jun 23 2012 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Jun 23 2012 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 23 2012 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 23 2012 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Jun 23 2012 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Jun 23 2012 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 23 2012 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Jun 23 2012 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Jun 23 2012 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Jun 23 2012 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Jun 23 2012 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Jun 23 2012 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Jun 23 2012 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Jun 23 2012 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Jun 23 2012 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge srquirrely   Sat Jun 23 2012 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge GlenJohnson   Sat Jun 23 2012 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge kromdog   Sun Jun 24 2012 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 02:06 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 03:13 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 03:29 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jun 24 2012 04:07 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sun Jun 24 2012 06:06 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sun Jun 24 2012 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Sun Jun 24 2012 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sun Jun 24 2012 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge GlenJohnson   Sun Jun 24 2012 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Sun Jun 24 2012 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Sun Jun 24 2012 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sun Jun 24 2012 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 25 2012 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Mon Jun 25 2012 02:43 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Jun 25 2012 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Mon Jun 25 2012 03:28 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 25 2012 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge kromdog   Mon Jun 25 2012 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge k___g   Mon Jun 25 2012 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Jun 25 2012 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Mon Jun 25 2012 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge GlenJohnson   Mon Jun 25 2012 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge k___g   Mon Jun 25 2012 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 25 2012 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Jun 25 2012 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Mon Jun 25 2012 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Mon Jun 25 2012 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Mon Jun 25 2012 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge kromdog   Mon Jun 25 2012 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 06:29 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 06:04 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 03:55 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 04:09 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 04:34 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sun Jun 24 2012 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2012 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Sat Jun 23 2012 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Fri Jun 22 2012 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Fri Jun 22 2012 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Jun 22 2012 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge NPR16   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Thu Jun 21 2012 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 07:19 PM

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