Quote: Where? Not a rhetorical question. The circulation migrated SE overnight and now may be under convection east of the YP. All the model runs will have to re-initialize after the system stablilzes. Also not much northerly drift presently for the main area of convection which has been parked in the channel for a couple of days. Waiting and watching.
Based on satellite, I have to concur that there would seem to be evidence of new LLC developing under the western edge of the convection just east (?) of the Northern tip of Yucatan. Don't think this changes present overall model spread for eventual motion, even though "that" still remains a questionmark. What might change however, is that this possible center being a bit farther east may be tucked a bit more under the upper level ridging. This would seem to aid in this systems development. May still be some lingering near term inflow issues while the larger broad low level swirl in the S. Central Gulf winds down, and am wondering if this is temporarily disrupting the point off Yucatan from becoming vertically stacked. Ongoing bursting of convection however will likely overcome those issues and once this does become a bit more of a vertically stacked system (tonight/tomm. a.m ?), than I think we will start to finally see a short term northward motion ensue.
While I still think that this system will eventually be shunted more westward, if I were in Tampa and points north into the Fla. Panhandle, I would'nt be adding any water to the pool for the next few days ( "Mother Nature" may well drop a few inches in for you!)
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