Quote: Recon has just punched through the exposed LLC situated near 25.9N 87.9W and is now verifying solid WSW winds on this leg of their flight. So far, the results are consistent with a closed low.
I see that, but it looks like a vortex that is rotating around a broader circulation. Either that, or it's moving south.
That "center" may be starting to gel as it appears in the last two frames now. Looks elongated E-W though.
Michael, I am tending to agree with you in that we have seen multiple vort centers try and vertically stack with the mid level, but only to have upper level shear ultimatly impact its tropical development, and thus ARE seeing tropical force winds and falling pressures but thus far been more "baroclinic in nature" and practically entirely on the systems east side. On the other hand, recon is certainly measuring the necessary winds to close off a center, yet where is the co-located convection?
Therefore out of necessity, and the "PC" thing to do, I assume that NHC will likely very soon put out a Special Cyclone Update that will include applicable warnings for Gale/Tropical Storm force winds, tides, & flooding, however my guess is that present condition of 96L along with recent history, the system will initially be labeled as "Sub-Tropical" , but with expectation of continued slow transition to becoming a tropical entity.
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