Quote: NHC must be reading your posts. Just kidding.
LOL, Dan - That was funny.....,
Now, to present circumstances - Could someone please raise the "HypeScale" to something closer to perhaps to 8.5 (tongue firmly placed in cheek) ?? Seriously though, I see the most recent LLC as just one more transient center destined to troll around and further detach itself from the parent mid level center, and unwind as the previous low level swirls did. I see a more dominant center possibly forming under the convection just south of 27N / 86W. I could be wrong about the current LLC and could be wrong about the next LLC but have to believe is the reason that NHC has not yet officially announced a first advisory on this system.
Per your point regarding us NOT YET having "Debbie" (despite the upgrade warning as caused by Best Track), is due to the present dynamics of 96L as described in the very text that has been posted here from the Marine Weather Discussion in your prior post.
So far I have read here ( and other discussion boards ), that ATCF, Dennis Phillips - ABC News, the Navy, & "Best Track"-Hurricane Reasearch Div. have all announced Debbie (sorry, or Debby?) has been annointed.
Not to split hairs over terminology between Subtropical or tropical, however I also wonder if taken into account by NHC ( or more specifically Lixion Avila ) is the near term risk of immediately upgrading this system based on recon, to only have a naked swirl eventually move westward and unwind. Given the the persistance of low level features being spit out and the mid level circulation outrunning a departed low level feature I think they are congnicent of the public's perception of "blown forecasts" which may occur due to the process of reformation of a developing or marginal cyclone.
Thats not to say that they will not classify this as T.S. Debby, but perhaps are in the process of determining if subtropical and/or how to carefully word forecast reasoning. There are reasons for the politics and even if most of us here reading the various posts and updates DO comprehend the dynamics of Tropical Cyclone genesis, the general public certainly does not. NHC is probably being very careful to decide what/how to classify 96L given the reality of an existing low level center with at least tropical depression force winds, yet potentially "poof" it may be gone in 2-4 hours until perhaps a new low develops - or does not develop.
I just heard on another discussion board that Bastardi (formerly Accuweather I think) just tweeted this could be at least a Cat. 2 and on the Texas coast in a matter of days. Well he could very well be right, but contrary to my own thoughts a few days ago, I don't think so.
Regardless, NHC to my knowledge has yet to establish an official advisory and already there are those calling this Tropical Storm Debby and how bad it might be. We're jumping the gun folks!
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