Today, Saturday's model run down. Using the 850mb vorticity run and the 12Z morning model run.
Canadian, meanders south of the Louisiana Coast and makes landfall in Mississippi.
Euro makes landfall in Corpus Christi, TX area.
GFDL, run as 96L, weak and landfalls in the Florida Big Bend area just east of Apalachicola,FL.
GFS slings off one vortice through the Big Bend area, and the main vortice crosses the Florida Peninsula just south of Tampa,FL.
HWRF brushes the Louisiana Coast and heads toward a landfall just south of Galveston,TX. Pressure of 981mb at landfall. (That could equate to a Hurricane at landfall. The pressure/ wind relationship would justify a 94 mph Maximum possible wind speed.)
NOGAPS makes landfall in the Brownsville,TX area.
Now we can see why NHC is leaning toward a Texas landfall. All of the above are Model Projections and are 16 hours old at this time. But they give an idea of why the westward track forecast is more likely.
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