To add to what Daniel has shared above, the only major model to swing Debby across Florida and out to sea has been the GFS, and when you actually break down the GFS into its ensemble members, generally half of them actually take Debby west, not east.
Viewed in total, the vast majority of models take Debby west or northwest.
A few models want to toss a mid-range Tropical Storm Debby up into Louisiana or thereabouts, and then the consensus models, which also take Debby up into the deep south, are essentially just splitting the difference between the GFS and the EURO, and not selecting the middle Gulf coast because they see anything in particular that other models do not.
Generally, the models that anticipate Debby to be a deeper feature are the ones forecasting landfall between northeastern Mexico and the upper Texas coast.
Presently, it is expected that the upper level low in the northwestern GOM responsible for punishing Debby's western half with so much shear will dig southwest, and perhaps weaken, allowing a protective high to build in nicely aloft. Such a scenario would in theory support Debby becoming a significant hurricane, all else being equal.
Considering Debby's potential to become a large and potent hurricane, interests along the western Gulf will want to pay very close attention, and see if this is how things evolve over the next few days.
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