Quote: To add to what Daniel has shared above, the only major model to swing Debby across Florida and out to sea has been the GFS, and when you actually break down the GFS into its ensemble members, generally half of them actually take Debby west, not east.
Viewed in total, the vast majority of models take Debby west or northwest.
As an update to the prior model discussion, the 0Z runs show an eastward shift for most of the major models, the UK now shifted to the east and no longer takes Debby to Texas and instead moves the storm N.W. into New Orleans. The Canadian now takes the storm across the Florida panhandle and into the Atlantic, the GFDL takes Debby across the Florida Panhandle. As I see it, 3 major models take Debby northeast across N. Florida (GFS, CMC, GFDL), one to the NNW across S.E. Louisiana (UK), which leaves the EURO as the outlier taking the storm to Texas (and still awaiting its 0Z update)
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As an update to the prior model discussion, the 0Z runs show an eastward shift for most of the major models, the UK now shifted to the east and no longer takes Debby to Texas and instead moves the storm N.W. into New Orleans. The Canadian now takes the storm across the Florida panhandle and into the Atlantic, the GFDL takes Debby across the Florida Panhandle. As I see it, 3 major models take Debby northeast across N. Florida (GFS, CMC, GFDL), one to the NNW across S.E. Louisiana (UK), which leaves the EURO as the outlier taking the storm to Texas (and still awaiting its 0Z update)
