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Although still very unlikely to develop or be very strong, there could be an area to watch in the in little more than a week out from energy currently associated with the systems in the East Pacific.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 607 (Milton), US Major: 607 (Milton), FL Any: 607 (Milton), FL Major: 607 (Milton)
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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge
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weathernet
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Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC?
      Sun Jun 24 2012 03:54 AM Attachment (394 downloads)

As of this posting, it still remains unsure exactly where T.S. Debby will track. However, given the persistant relocation of this very tilted and sheared storm and coupled with latest 0Z model guidance shift, it does appear that there is greater likelyhood of a N.Central Florida landfall.

Once initialized as a storm today, one may note a nearly immediate westward forecasted motion with the "cone of error" at 5 days expanding to cover the W. Coastline of Louisiana and all Coastal Texas. To my recollection, this may mark the first time that I can remember that NHC may miss all "cone forecast points. An illustration "link" of original track forecast may be clicked on above this post.

Though when initially pondered as a big league "swing and a miss", perhaps the more salient point here is that what makes this missed forecast stand out so much may very well be the level of increasing accuracy that NHC has exhibited over recent years and how we have all come to expect that. So if that be the case, they deserve a mulligan. (Heck, when I'm out playing golf i'm usually needing more than one!)

Edited by weathernet (Sun Jun 24 2012 03:57 AM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? weathernet Sun Jun 24 2012 03:54 AM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? kromdog   Sun Jun 24 2012 04:40 AM
. * * Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? doug   Sun Jun 24 2012 07:03 AM
. * * Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 08:11 AM
. * * Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? kromdog   Sun Jun 24 2012 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? Littlebit   Sun Jun 24 2012 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? LoisCane   Sun Jun 24 2012 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 08:23 AM
. * * Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 08:05 AM
. * * Debby Vortex danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 24 2012 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Debby - "Mulligan" for NHC? Joeyfl   Sun Jun 24 2012 04:37 AM

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