Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Debby in Gulf of Mexico

At 5AM this early Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Debby was located about 85 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, moving to the east at 4mph. Sustained winds near the center remain at 45mph with higher gusts. Because of upper level windshear, most of the heavier rain area associated with Debby is located to the east northeast of the storm center, however, new outer rainbands continue to form and move across the Florida peninsula.

Tropical Storm Debby is now likely to make landfall south of Cedar Key mid-morning on Wednesday and move east to east northeast across the peninsula to the vicinity of Daytona Beach (or perhaps even a little further south toward the Cape) by mid-day on Thursday and slowly move east northeast out into the Atlantic Thursday afternoon and Friday. With consideration for the GFS model which has done quite well with this storm, my forecast track for Debby is a little faster and further south than the 5AM National Hurricane Center forecast. I'd anticipate that Debby will weaken to a Tropical Depression as the storm crosses the peninsula on Wednesday and restrengthen to a Tropical Storm as she exits the peninsula into the Atlantic later on Thursday into Friday.

For folks in most of the Florida peninsula, brisk southerly to south southwesterly winds from 20-30mph, with a few higher gusts along the coasts, will continue through late evening on Wednesday and become more southwesterly on Thursday. Sporadic rain squalls are likely through Thursday and should become a little more frequent on Thursday as Debby passes near or just north of east central Florida. A few thunderstorms could quickly spin up isolated tornadoes anytime from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday so stay alert to the potential for these severe weather conditions that are often associated with tropical systems. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible - primarily to the north and northeast of the storm center in northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.
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