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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
      Sat Aug 04 2012 08:59 AM

YES, this morning you're forecast is looking
spot on.

":uarrow: The problem is, the models still are initializing correctly; the GFS and Euro have it as a weak low/wave when its a 60mph TS. It seems like very few models are understand that Ernesto is a strong TS and not a weak system..."

" Isn't this (the Latest GFS Ensemble track guidance) keeping it at basically a tropical storm or maybe low Cat 1 hurricane? (I get this from the pressure they have it at..) If that is the case, it makes sense why they have it so far west, but I think it will be stronger than that and therefore go more northerly. "

A weak storm hits Tampico Environs.

A strong storm clips the Yucatan's NE Corner.

Is that a fair assumption?

Thanx

Jim

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Lounge cieldumort Sat Aug 04 2012 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sat Aug 04 2012 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 04 2012 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Sat Aug 04 2012 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sat Aug 04 2012 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 05 2012 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 05 2012 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sun Aug 05 2012 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 03 2012 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 03 2012 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Fri Aug 03 2012 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Mon Aug 06 2012 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 06 2012 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 06 2012 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 06 2012 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 03 2012 10:06 AM
. * * Re: TD 5 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 01 2012 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 01 2012 08:24 PM

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