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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
Td#2
ADV#1 10:00 pm EDT
9.1N 41.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
      Sat Aug 04 2012 09:41 AM

Ernesto has slowed his forward speed just slightly since yesterday. Whether it's in response to the ridge to the north or the area of dry air ahead of Ernesto it's really hard to tell right now.
I still see a tight clustering of the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models. With an extrapolated landfall in the Pensacola,FL to Gulfport,MS area.

All of the other models and the Official NHC Forecast take Ernesto toward the Cozumel/ Cancun,MX area. With one exception, the AEMN still goes west toward southern Texas and then doglegs toward the Lake Charles,LA/ Houston,TX area.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

TropicalAtlantic.com Ernesto Model page

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Lounge cieldumort Sat Aug 04 2012 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sat Aug 04 2012 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 04 2012 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Sat Aug 04 2012 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sat Aug 04 2012 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 05 2012 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 05 2012 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sun Aug 05 2012 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 03 2012 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 03 2012 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Fri Aug 03 2012 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Mon Aug 06 2012 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 06 2012 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 06 2012 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 06 2012 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 03 2012 10:06 AM
. * * Re: TD 5 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 01 2012 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 01 2012 08:24 PM

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