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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Florence
      Sat Aug 04 2012 08:04 PM

Tropical Storm Florence has some interesting challenges ahead. The system is rather well organized and some slight intensification is possible over the next couple of days. The Atlantic high pressure ridge is expected to build and dig to the south - roughly along 50W. Florence will encounter increasing west southwesterly shear late Monday into Tuesday and will encounter slightly cooler SSTs (27-27.5C) especially on Tuesday. With increasing windshear aloft and slightly cooler sea surface temperatures any additional intensification should stop by Tuesday (perhaps even Monday) so the likelyhood of reaching hurricane status is slim at best. IF Florence can survive the shear, and because of the building high pressure to the north of the system, a weaker Florence would likely take a more westerly or even west southwesterly track Tuesday afternoon.
ED

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Area of Interest - Florence Ed DunhamAdministrator Sat Aug 04 2012 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Florence Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Florence LoisCane   Sun Aug 05 2012 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Florence Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 05 2012 09:24 AM

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