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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
      Mon Aug 06 2012 08:25 PM

I was watching the center fixes also. Yes, they are in a row at nearly a due NW or 315 degree heading.

NHC uses 6 hour averages on their headings so it would take a while to average out the NW run. ( Remember Charley 2004. Average said Charley was heading NNW after he made the right hand turn toward landfall.)

Computers don't have Eyes and that 3rd dimension is what gives us an edge over a computer.

I'm not sure what the NW run will do to the models as they aren't out yet. But it Should have some effect on them. I don't think it will be a large... Central GOM effect. But something along the lines of missing Belize and striking the Cozumel to Cancun area. Which in turn could line up portions of the South Texas Coast for a second landfall.

That's my two cents. And I didn't stay at Holiday Inn Express last night, or book Earl Lee.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Lounge cieldumort Mon Aug 06 2012 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sat Aug 04 2012 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 04 2012 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Sat Aug 04 2012 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sat Aug 04 2012 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 05 2012 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 05 2012 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sun Aug 05 2012 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 03 2012 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 03 2012 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Fri Aug 03 2012 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Mon Aug 06 2012 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 06 2012 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 06 2012 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 06 2012 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 03 2012 10:06 AM
. * * Re: TD 5 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 01 2012 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 01 2012 08:24 PM

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