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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
      Mon Aug 06 2012 10:07 PM

There is an upper low in the SW GOM and though inverted it does extend to a weak upper low/open wave off the coast of North Florida that is barely noted on water vapor imagery to the NE and N to the developing long wave trough along the Eastern US with an upper low over Canada progged to move Southeast to the Great Lakes area and deepen and cutoff there; I expect the track to be adjusted a hair to the right...north but I don't see anything in the models to suggest that Ernesto will gain enough latitude to be turned north; the upper low over the SW GOM is progged to move west to inland Mexico in 48 hours and an upper (200 mb) ridge currently to the SW of Ernesto is expected to be out ahead of Ernesto backing the storm back to the west and west-southwest. Currently there is an upper ridge directly over the system but strong 30 knot wind shear from the north less than 200 miles to the northeast of the center and 30 knots from the south near the NW shore of the Yucatan peninsula; both indicative of upper lows over the SW GOM and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Mon Aug 06 2012 10:27 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Lounge cieldumort Mon Aug 06 2012 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sat Aug 04 2012 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 04 2012 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Sat Aug 04 2012 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sat Aug 04 2012 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 05 2012 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 05 2012 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sun Aug 05 2012 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 04 2012 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 03 2012 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 03 2012 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Fri Aug 03 2012 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Mon Aug 06 2012 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 06 2012 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Aug 06 2012 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 06 2012 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 06 2012 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 03 2012 10:06 AM
. * * Re: TD 5 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 01 2012 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 01 2012 08:24 PM

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