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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

berrywr
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
Mon Aug 06 2012 10:07 PM

There is an upper low in the SW GOM and though inverted it does extend to a weak upper low/open wave off the coast of North Florida that is barely noted on water vapor imagery to the NE and N to the developing long wave trough along the Eastern US with an upper low over Canada progged to move Southeast to the Great Lakes area and deepen and cutoff there; I expect the track to be adjusted a hair to the right...north but I don't see anything in the models to suggest that Ernesto will gain enough latitude to be turned north; the upper low over the SW GOM is progged to move west to inland Mexico in 48 hours and an upper (200 mb) ridge currently to the SW of Ernesto is expected to be out ahead of Ernesto backing the storm back to the west and west-southwest. Currently there is an upper ridge directly over the system but strong 30 knot wind shear from the north less than 200 miles to the northeast of the center and 30 knots from the south near the NW shore of the Yucatan peninsula; both indicative of upper lows over the SW GOM and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Mon Aug 06 2012 10:27 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Aug 06 2012 10:07 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 04 2012 08:19 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	mcgowanmc	Sat Aug 04 2012 08:59 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	danielw	Sat Aug 04 2012 09:41 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Aug 04 2012 11:49 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 04 2012 12:19 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	ftlaudbob	Sat Aug 04 2012 01:25 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	mcgowanmc	Sat Aug 04 2012 09:14 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	danielw	Sat Aug 04 2012 10:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sun Aug 05 2012 08:49 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	danielw	Sun Aug 05 2012 11:49 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	mcgowanmc	Sun Aug 05 2012 08:08 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 04 2012 03:01 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 03 2012 11:31 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	mcgowanmc	Fri Aug 03 2012 08:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	stormtiger	Fri Aug 03 2012 09:28 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	stormtiger	Mon Aug 06 2012 09:47 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	ftlaudbob	Mon Aug 06 2012 01:45 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	WeatherNut	Mon Aug 06 2012 02:32 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	danielw	Mon Aug 06 2012 08:25 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	berrywr	Mon Aug 06 2012 10:07 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	ftlaudbob	Mon Aug 06 2012 10:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	berrywr	Mon Aug 06 2012 10:34 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	mcgowanmc	Fri Aug 03 2012 10:06 AM
Re: TD 5 Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Aug 01 2012 07:56 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge	ftlaudbob	Wed Aug 01 2012 08:24 PM

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