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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
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ADV#1 10:00 pm EDT
9.1N 41.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Ernesto
      Tue Aug 07 2012 05:42 PM

Well Ernesto certainly has been an interesting storm to forecast - and he is at it again. After developing rather impressively this afternoon, dry air has once again worked itself into the core of the hurricane - just after the 21Z bulletins were issued. This latest degradation of the core should just about eliminate any chance for further intensification - which would be good news for the folks in the Yucatan - but don't rely on anything concrete with this storm. Landfall as a hurricane is just about certain.

At 07/21Z Hurricane Ernesto was located about 140 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico, moving to the west northwest at 12 knots. This translates to an early morning landfall between Cozumel and Chetumal, Mexico. From NHC:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

Current Weather at Chetumal, Mexico

Current Weather at Cozumel, Mexico

ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Area of Concern - Hurricane Ernesto cieldumort Tue Aug 07 2012 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Ernesto cieldumort   Tue Aug 07 2012 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest: Tropical Storm Ernesto cieldumort   Wed Aug 01 2012 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest: Tropical Storm Ernesto Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 02 2012 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest: Tropical Storm Ernesto Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 05 2012 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Area of Interest: Tropical Storm Ernesto Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 06 2012 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Ernesto Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 06 2012 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Ernesto Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 06 2012 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Ernesto Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 07 2012 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Ernesto Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 08 2012 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Ernesto Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 08 2012 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Ernesto Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 08 2012 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Ernesto berrywr   Tue Aug 07 2012 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Area of Interest: Vigorous Invest 99L cieldumort   Wed Aug 01 2012 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest: Vigorous Invest 99L Joeyfl   Wed Aug 01 2012 03:14 PM

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