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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)
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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge
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Robert
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast
      Thu Aug 09 2012 10:28 PM

everything above has no real basis execpt for a nogaps model run a few days ago. I feel that nogaps has a good handle vs the other models on the shallow flow characteristics of the large scale pattern as a whole. im not focusing on the center of the llc or wave, but as the whole synoptic pattern dealing with ernesto the upper low it self that has been moving slowly south for severla day and in the wake of ernest and upper level input from the outflow of ernesto, that the upper low would try and take on some mid to low level extra tropical characteristics. the wave entering the picture that is florence will be ventelated and sheared by this eveolving hybrid upper low. the result wouldent so much be the LLC forming again but more a meso scale features forming, fluxuating with the diernal pattern.

(Off topic material was removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 10 2012 12:46 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Florence Remnant Low Forecast Robert Thu Aug 09 2012 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 08 2012 05:02 AM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 10 2012 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Ed in Va   Fri Aug 10 2012 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast LoisCane   Thu Aug 09 2012 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Robert   Thu Aug 09 2012 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Robert   Thu Aug 09 2012 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast doug   Thu Aug 09 2012 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Robert   Thu Aug 09 2012 10:28 PM

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