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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 307 (Idalia) , Major: 307 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 307 (Idalia) Major: 307 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#16A 7:00 pm EDT
15.6N 69.9W
Wind: 155MPH
Pres: 943mb
Moving:
Wnw at 22 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge
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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast
      Thu Aug 09 2012 06:28 PM

everything above has no real basis execpt for a nogaps model run a few days ago. I feel that nogaps has a good handle vs the other models on the shallow flow characteristics of the large scale pattern as a whole. im not focusing on the center of the llc or wave, but as the whole synoptic pattern dealing with ernesto the upper low it self that has been moving slowly south for severla day and in the wake of ernest and upper level input from the outflow of ernesto, that the upper low would try and take on some mid to low level extra tropical characteristics. the wave entering the picture that is florence will be ventelated and sheared by this eveolving hybrid upper low. the result wouldent so much be the LLC forming again but more a meso scale features forming, fluxuating with the diernal pattern.

(Off topic material was removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 09 2012 08:46 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Florence Remnant Low Forecast Robert Thu Aug 09 2012 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 08 2012 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 09 2012 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Ed in Va   Fri Aug 10 2012 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast LoisCane   Wed Aug 08 2012 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Robert   Thu Aug 09 2012 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Robert   Thu Aug 09 2012 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast doug   Thu Aug 09 2012 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Florence Remnant Low Forecast Robert   Thu Aug 09 2012 06:28 PM

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