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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 309 (Idalia) , Major: 309 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 309 (Idalia) Major: 309 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#26 4:00 am EDT
19.6N 85.5W
Wind: 115MPH
Pres: 964mb
Moving:
W at 16 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge
      Fri Aug 10 2012 12:15 AM

10/02Z - I haven't looked at the 10/00Z run but I have looked at both the 12Z and 18Z runs..currently there's a break between the Cape Verde/African Upper Ridge and the Bermuda Ridge and for a while the Cape Verde ridge follow along the system but the anomalously deep cutoff low over the Great Lakes region is impressive to say the least with an extending long wave trough all the way to the Gulf Coast. The break appears to be in the vicinity of 56W longtitude and the westerlies take quite the dip. Florence is DOA with the long wave trough in place over the Eastern US and if it were to survive it would have a date with recurvature nevertheless. Any tropical activity has to stay right along 10N latitude to have any shot at getting across the AO. The models have been consistent for days bringing Ernesto back from the dead in the Pacific.

(This post was edited in the main forum, but posted in its entirety in the "lounge"...we affectionately call it the 5 day rule)

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator Fri Aug 10 2012 12:15 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 11 2012 11:07 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge berrywr   Fri Aug 10 2012 12:15 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge berrywr   Fri Aug 10 2012 12:19 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge mikethewreck   Fri Aug 10 2012 11:50 AM
. * * Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Aug 11 2012 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 07 2012 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge doug   Tue Aug 07 2012 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 07 2012 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Aug 08 2012 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Wed Aug 08 2012 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Forecast Lounge weatherhead   Thu Aug 09 2012 12:16 AM

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