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Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 31 (Milton) , Major: 31 (Milton) Florida - Any: 31 (Milton) Major: 31 (Milton)
PTC Rafael
ADV#30 3:00 pm EDT
26.1N 91.3W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Moving:
E at 3 mph
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2490
Loc: Austin, Tx
Area of Interest: Invest 95L
      Sun Aug 19 2012 02:14 PM

A convectively active surface trough which includes some of the remnant circulation of (former) Helene has become a little better defined over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico today. This feature has been tagged as Invest 95L.

95L is in a marginally favorable environment for further organization, currently centered roughly around 21.7N 98.1W. Movement is nearly stationary, or drifting on and offshore.

The estimated minimum central pressure within 95L is a relatively low 1005mb, and maximum sustained winds are running about 20 knots, but scatterometer measurements suggests that much higher gusts are occurring.

NHC currently gives this disturbance a 20% chance of becoming a numbered tropical cyclone within 48 hours.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Area of Interest: Invest 95L cieldumort Sun Aug 19 2012 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest: Invest 95L danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 19 2012 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest: Invest 95L danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 19 2012 07:28 PM

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