The models have run several scenarios... many ignored like the out to sea forecasts which are pretty much out to sea. Had Isaac formed and been strong... he might have taken that track up the Atlantic... but the "good news" of Isaac not being Isaac may be "BAD NEWS" down the road as he gets further west every 12 hours and the models respond in each new run and he now becomes your classic CV storm where he "can" go up over the islands towards Florida and the GOM or the East Coast of the US ...OR........he can go through the islands, stay south of a tango with Haiti and come up under Cuba and aim towards either Tampa or Miami and the rest of the East Coast of Florida.
So... this concept of him looking bad is good news should be thrown out a window as weak and steady as he moves towards warmer water with what seems good bone structure that would favor big, giant bands circling around a developed center is BAD NEWS actually.... not bad as in "hype" its just bad as in reality bites.
You have to look LONG TERM at a LONG TRACKER. Early strong storms curve WNW and NW. Early strong storms catch the ULL or a doorway away from a landfall... slow, steady storms like this one keep getting further west, further south and the BIG difference between this one and the last few is.......FALL has set in early. Fronts are now moving south... there is a bit less dust, warmer water... a frontal boundary that pushed through FL/GA and then backs up and becomes a stationary front could be more of a problem. Just a different set of factors with this storm (and the ones behind it) than what happened to Ernesto/Hector.
So... keep watching. But, yeah.... I keep seeing variations on Cleo and Donna and that would imply Cuba gets this before Florida...if Florida gets it. (How much do we trust the GFS this far out???) But that ole Seminole Wind may blow real strong if Isaac forms and follows the GFS.
And, if Cuba gets it vs Haiti... there is less of a chance of it falling apart and of course it depends if Cuba gets it where it crosses Cuba... up over the islands would imply a much stronger storm but the GFS is not showing that scenario this morning...
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