Just a quick follow up for now: As I had speculated earlier, the convective and organizational trends established during the daylight hours (see animated visible satellite loop, previous post) have continued unabated during the diurnal convective max cycle, with the convective banding features so clearly evident previously in the SE quadrant, have continued to intensify and also increased in aerial extent, all the while pulling in closer and closer to the low lever center of circulation.
Moreover, thunderstorms have begun initiating closer what was previously an exposed LLCC, especially immediately to the W and SW of the center, as clearly portrayed in the following animation.
NRL has lowered the central pressure by a millibar, while bumping up the estimated sustained winds to 30 knots, and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook reveals " ... ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW."
I think we're well on our way to cyclogenesis, and should convection continue to increase overnight, I'd not be at all surprised to see a Depression, or even a named storm, by the break of day, local basin time.
(PS: Yes Lois, you are spot on: I was referring to Isaac Cline, the Meteorologist at Galveston in 1900, when that city was utterly destroyed, with the loss of 6,000+ lives, including his wife and many he knew. I'll be making a separate post in the "Hurricane Ask / Tell" Forum soon, to share with those who may not know the story of Isaac Cline and the harrowing ordeal he went through, greatly underestimating the impact of the US's deadliest hurricane.)
0 registered and 134 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 166221
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge
Edit
Reply
Quote
