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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 271 (Idalia) , Major: 271 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 271 (Idalia) Major: 271 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Storm Forum

Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L
Tue Aug 21 2012 05:22 AM

At 21/00Z, Invest 94L was located at 15.3N 48.8W with sustained winds estimated at 30 knots and pressure at 1009mb. The system has moved 8.2 degrees to the west in 24 hours - that equals to an average speed of 20.5 kts. When a system chugs along at that rate for an extended period of time, consolidation is difficult at best - especially for a system with a large overall area of circulation, and 94L is rather large. Although 94L should start to slow down, it will pass through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday - and if it slows down enough, it could be a tropical cyclone at that time so folks in the Islands should continue to closely monitor this developing system.

This evening some new convection is firing near the center and in the band to the west but it still has a way to go. On Wednesday as the system approaches the Greater Antilles, it will slow down quite a bit which would allow a better opportunity for development/intensification - but it will also encounter increasing westerly shear at that time. It is worth noting that the GFS and the ECMWF have not been quick to ramp up this system for the past few days and the 21/00Z GFS run maintains a weaker cyclone for a few more days until it gets west of Hispaniola and near Jamaica/eastern Cuba early Saturday.
ED

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Area of Concern: Isaac	cieldumort	Tue Aug 21 2012 05:22 AM
Re: Area of Interest: TD 9	cieldumort	Tue Aug 21 2012 07:14 PM
Re: Area of Interest: TD 9	cieldumort	Tue Aug 21 2012 09:04 AM
Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L	cieldumort	Mon Aug 20 2012 08:03 PM
Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L	cieldumort	Sun Aug 19 2012 06:25 AM
Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L	doug	Sun Aug 19 2012 11:50 AM
Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 17 2012 04:35 PM
Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L	Ed Dunham	Sun Aug 19 2012 03:34 AM
Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L	Ed Dunham	Sun Aug 19 2012 01:41 PM
Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L	Ed Dunham	Mon Aug 20 2012 04:10 PM
Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L	Ed Dunham	Tue Aug 21 2012 05:22 AM
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Isaac	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 24 2012 04:38 AM
Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Isaac	Ed Dunham	Tue Aug 28 2012 03:43 AM
Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Isaac	berrywr	Tue Aug 28 2012 05:40 AM
Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L	danielw	Sun Aug 19 2012 03:57 PM

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