Kudoes to Coconut Candy for some very good forecasting yesterday. Great job, great explanation and great visuals.
Right now it seems to me like the two big factors are the dry air and how much it limits the future Issac in the near term and causes it to stay weaker, and the orientation of the Atlantic ridge and just how far West it extends in the next 3-5 days.
I think the GFS and the European models both have a good handle on this storm, and the key will be whether or not the future Issac stays south of central Cuba or strikes Hispanola or Eastern Cuba. The broad track seems pretty clear, but the devil is in the details.
A front passed through La. early yesterday and it is leaving a weakness for Issac to take north. Right now that path seems to be open towards Florida and specifically the southern tip.
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