Another interesting bit is how similar the discussion with Isaac may be to what Irene (another I storm) last year was.
Last year's Irene forecast lounge. This initially looked as if Florida was in the cross hairs, but eventually wound up in North Carolina and flooding in the northeast..
The biggest change was that it moved northwest over Puerto Rico early, even though initial forecasts took it over Eastern Cuba, and is very similar to what we have now with Isaac's forecast. (See Forecast History for Irene (20122) and model plots for Irene (2011)). Actually none of the models projected it going over Puerto Rico.
In short it's a bit too early to speculate while the system is when it isn't even in the Caribbean yet, I don't expect a repeat of Irene since the ridge is a bit stronger this go around, but I think it's a good framing for countering the hype that may occur.
Irene from last year (around the same Position as Isaac)
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