Quote: has not history shown a general trend to the right in the forecast track over time with these types of systems? My concerns is that if it remains rather weak will a more westerly component be present in the system and keep the track to the left?
Climatologically, yes, but not always.
The GFS model runs (6z) take it more along Cuba and then recurve it in the Gulf eventually landfalling in the Big Bend of Florida (only).next wednesday.
The CMC keeps it east of Florida
The Euro keeps it south of the Islands and enters the Gulf as a monster storm nearing Louisiana.
The trend for most everything has been slightly west this morning.
So the spread amongst some of the more reliable models is fairly large. Around the time it nears Hispaniola (Friday) is probably a good time to recheck this system.
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