did a little more research on the mess east of florida. surface winds are sort of a scramble, but there is a general broad turning to the convection in the area.. this is part of a strung out upper feature and frontal remnant that is getting kinked off while a ridge amplifies some to the northwest... it has a good chance of stirring something at the surface, as it keeps refiring convection.
pretty much every model i found showed a convective mass sliding northeast, mrf/avn family wants to shunt it out into the trough forecast to dig in with the stalled upper system currently over the canadian maritimes. this is typical mrf--phase every bit of tropical energy northeast. but all have the same general idea, only less so. pretty much every model registers a weak low with it.. so with confidence that a low will organize, need to watch to see if the ball gets rolling and a system starts to organize.
throw a tropical storm off the east coast by mid week and things get a little more complicated than what forecast models are showing. area needs to be watched, say chances around 20% of something developing.
read bastardi today, he did mention the typhoons. the one in the east recurves, the one near the continent goes in, or so the philosophy goes. he tied it to the stalled upper system over texas, that old piece that retrograded by here ten days ago and gave us all of that rainy weather in the southeast. this could be the first little pulse of el nino trying to assert itself, kicking up the low latitude westerlies and playing against the trough splitting-retrograding pattern. i was sort of counting on the trough splitting to give us a landfall or two say before september 1.. should the global pattern start to warp into enso+ then there's more cause for a less active season with more shear and booted systems.. but a weak el nino in fits and starts could make for a very wishy washy sort of performance by this years hurricanes, when they show up... thats what i'm putting the poker chips on. either if things swing too far the el nino way then the east coast is probably out of the woods.
geez i just wrote war and peace... typing requires so little effort..
im not registered so i dont get those star ratings, and wouldnt put much stock into them if i did. might as well ask yall what you think of my incredibly long posts that have been appearing on this site for about two years now.. kind of wonder what you all make of them.
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