Current motion would lead you to believe that just maybe the ECMWF has a better handle on Issac. Today...right now, I couldn't tell you whether Florida...east side, directly over and up the peninsula or west side or up into the Gulf of Mexico. The longer Issac remains "shallow" the more west the cyclone will go...if and when Issac develops enough structurally and vertically it will then feel the tug of the upper air environment over the eastern side of the United States. There is a COL or break between the mid-continental ridge and the Bermuda ridge and a longwave trough over the NE USA extending down the Eastern US giving Issac a track to go. It is where these players will be as we go forward, how strong they will be...which ridge is stronger in however Issac is nudged one way or the other east and west. Central Georgia is in a D3 and D4 drought and could really, really use the rainfall...that said, N Florida has been drown once this year already and they don't need the extra rainfall. Ed pounded into me a bunch of years ago this 5 day rule this website has and I've adopted it over on our Facebook page this year. I realize we're all looking at Florida but I think in due time our focus will be on the Gulf Coast but that is a solid week from now...any adjustment to the left of the current track will put Issac over Cuba paralleling it over land, not taking the short route directly across from south to north; until that track is better defined Issac is not likely to be a very strong cyclone when it exits Cuba.
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