Issac continues to represent what the 2012 season has become, a season of storms that have not seemed to catch the genie in a bottle to become a traditional, full blown hurricane.
Dry air, East Carribean graveyard, fast motion or whatever is the main cause; it is playing havoc with the models and forecasters.
48 hours ago Issac was predicted to be at 16.6 and at 66.3 with 75 mph winds. Just 24 hours ago Issac was predicted to be at 16.7 and at 66.7 with 60 mph winds.
Right now the NHC has Issac pegged at 16.0N and at 67.1West with 40 mph winds. And that position is sort of a compromise so they can provide a point on the map which represents a best "average" of several vortices in a larger area.
The point here is that until Issac gets better organized he could do almost anything once he organizes. Right now models are trending westward which means exactly nothing except that maybe people in Hispanola, Cuba and S Florida may let their guard down when in fact Issac could still wind up hitting Miami.
Issac is a dangerous storm. Not because of what it is, but what it could become. A weak storm, a storm not really getting its act together crossing Cuba and then suddenly intensifying in 88 degree plus GOM waters and then moving on a fast track to NO, Mobile, or Tampa before many have prepared or evacuated is a worst case scenario.
Let's hope this doesn't happen, but on a weekend people need to remain vigilant because the danger is ever present because a weak storm like Issac gaining strength rapidly in the GOM can in a sense be more dangerous than a larger storm on an obvious path.
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