Quote: "... The point here is that until Issac gets better organized he could do almost anything once he organizes. *Right now models are trending westward, which means exactly nothing* ...
Issac is a dangerous storm. Not because of what it is, but what it could become. A weak storm, a storm not really getting its act together ... and then suddenly intensifying in 88 degree plus GOM waters and then moving on a fast track to NO, Mobile, or Tampa ... " - Storm Tiger
Quote: "I realize that multiple vortices within a general circulation area is the prime suspect, but there seems to have been a bad-luck tendency to pinpoint the wrong one - which becomes frustrating because the real track, forecast track, and model track are seldom in sync. ... Isaac remains a poorly organized system, so realize that the details of the model outputs for both track and intensity will be suspect until Isaac develops and maintains a firm center." - Ed Dunham
Very nicely summed up. And I tend to agree that far too much is made of the long range model runs (3 to 5 days out) when systems are still in their formative stages, or experiencing significant deterrents of one form or another, as Isaac has now for the last few days.
Although the model runs are, of course, very interesting and useful tools, we should use heed their solutions with objectivity, even skepticism (speaking especially of the extended forecasts), until the storm is well formed, where they can initialize in a more meaningful manner and generate a more realistic prognostication.
-------------------- Prepare or Despair. Above all ... "Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
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