Although it's entirely conceivable (and even likely) that there remain two competing centers of circulation, my impression, based on the last few hours of the unenhanced IR animated satellite loop, is that the increasingly predominate LLCC now appears, to me, closer to 15 N, perhaps even as low as 14.8, as clearly evidenced by significant low level turning amongst strong, developing thunderstorms immediately surrounding that locus of activity.
Which bodes worse, perhaps, for a strong GOM event, due to a weaker system initialized further south of previously thought, perhaps bypassing the detrimental run up the spine of Cuba entirely, and simply crossing the narrow, relatively flat, western end of Cuba in a somewhat more perpendicular fashion (thus lessening time spent over land), ending up entering the Gulf much more intact and better able to respond quickly (aka: rapid intensification) in the very warm waters of the gulf with it's currently rather high oceanic heat content.
Also quite telling is the curvilinear 'banding' structures of moderate thunderstorms now beginning to flare up north of Hispaniola and farther NW'ward towards the Turks and Caicos and SE'ern Bahamas and also the rapidly increasing convection streaming in from Venezuela, all of which support the idea of a large circulation envelope remaining, and are perhaps the harbingers of a final 'push' to consolidate the LLCC and begin a cycle of rapid intensification.
In any event, I think we'll see significant intensification during the overnight hours tonight, perhaps dramatically so, should 'Isaac' decide to finally consolidate about one of it's myriad LLCC's.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 321541
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center