MAJOR Typhoon 'TEMBIN' Threatens Taiwan - Landfall Imminent

Tembin has been a very interesting storm to observe. It formed a few days ago east of Luzon and quickly went bananas and blew up to nearly supertyphoon status in less than 24 hours. It moved north then struggled through an ERC and ran into some shear while weakening to a cat 1 storm and stalling. Then the ridge built across China and forced the storm west toward Taiwan. The combination of warm SST's and low shear gave Tembin its second wind and it pushed WSW across extreme southern Taiwan as a cat 3 storm. It weakened slightly to a 100 kt storm but is now back over water and may restrengthen. The weak steering currents have caused headaches for forecasters as earlier it was expected to cross northern Taiwan and head west into China.

The future track of Tembin promises more headaches as Typhoon Bolaven (an extremely large major typhoon probably worthy of its own thread) approaches from the southeast and possibly produces a "Fujiwhara" effect as a trough breaks down the ridge and forces Tembin to loop back east. This will be very interesting to watch over the next few days. Tembin is expected to possibly cross southern Taiwan again (in a weaker state) then accelerate out to the northeast as Bolaven races up north toward Korea.

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