Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
31 (Milton)
, Major:
31 (Milton)
Florida - Any: 31 (Milton)
Major:
31 (Milton)
I agree with Mike's assessment and Isaac seems to be going to cut across the NE most part of the island. That means more water time as it ambles NW'd. I think the intensity forecasts will adjust, perhaps upward, once this unsettled period abates and the storm is able to perform consistently for 6-8 hours. I am not convinced it will not be able to achieve the margins of cat I-II at its peak, so a 90+ peak is possible IMO.
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