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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
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Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Kirk Forecast Lounge
      Sun Aug 26 2012 12:22 AM



A rather large area of low pressure centered about 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has become much better organized over the past 48 hours, and so we will now start a Lounge on this system, which has been tagged Invest 97L.

97L consists of a sprawling area of low pressure, so much so that I needed to use the 2km visible satellite image above in order to capture it all. The southwestern extent of the low consists of a shallow convective feeder that connects well into the ITCZ, with the northeastern portion stretching out to help establish an outflow channel with an upper level low centered southwest of Spain.

As of 8:00 PM EDT Aug. 25, the approximate center of 97L is probably now located near 15.3N 33W, and movement is to the west-northwest at around 15 MPH. Minimum central pressure is officially estimated to be down to 1006mb, and maximum sustained winds up to about 30 MPH. NHC has given 97L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours, and this could be conservative.

This is where to put long range best guesses on intensity and forecast track for this feature. Long range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Edited to reflect upgrades on 8/28

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Aug 29 2012 02:40 AM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Kirk Forecast Lounge cieldumort Sun Aug 26 2012 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Kirk Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 29 2012 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Kirk Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Thu Aug 30 2012 01:28 PM

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