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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge
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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge
      Thu Aug 30 2012 05:06 PM Attachment (239 downloads)

I think the models are over emphasizing Kirk's influence. Kirk is a very small storm and any break in the ridge will quickly fill in. Also it looks like dry air is doing its deed as the convection on the east side isn't as robust (the depression). It is also moving due west which will have it miss the next forecast point to the south. The Euro seems to want to take it more west (I've heard that one before this season). A couple of days will provide a little more clarity perhaps.
Side note...this is about to go almost directly over buoy 41041 with now has pressure falling and a sustained wind of 29kts and a gust of 35kts out of the NNW (as of 12:50 EST)
I attached the plot


Edited by WeatherNut (Thu Aug 30 2012 05:23 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Leslie Forecast Lounge cieldumort Thu Aug 30 2012 05:06 PM
. * * Re: TS Leslie Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 04 2012 03:08 PM
. * * Re: TS Leslie Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Wed Sep 05 2012 12:56 AM
. * * Re: TS Leslie Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Wed Sep 05 2012 01:05 AM
. * * Re: TS Leslie Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Wed Sep 05 2012 06:04 PM
. * * Re: TS Leslie Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Wed Sep 05 2012 06:25 PM
. * * Re: TS Leslie Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 31 2012 05:42 AM
. * * Re: TS Leslie Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Fri Aug 31 2012 08:30 PM
. * * Re: TS Leslie Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Fri Aug 31 2012 09:17 PM
. * * Re: TS Leslie Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Sat Sep 01 2012 04:06 PM
. * * Re: TS Leslie Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sun Sep 02 2012 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Aug 29 2012 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 29 2012 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Aug 30 2012 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 30 2012 06:02 AM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge Myles   Thu Aug 30 2012 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Thu Aug 30 2012 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Thu Aug 30 2012 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 30 2012 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Thu Aug 30 2012 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Thu Aug 30 2012 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Aug 30 2012 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Leslie Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Fri Aug 31 2012 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Leslie Forecast Lounge cjzydeco   Wed Aug 29 2012 01:37 AM

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