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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
Moderator


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Posts: 2487
Loc: Austin, Tx
Sandy Forecast Lounge
      Sun Oct 21 2012 03:14 AM



A tropical wave nestled within a very large area of lower sea level pressure is tracking west through the Caribbean this weekend, and is in an area increasingly favorable environment for development. This feature has been tagged as Invest 99L, and NHC now gives it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.

Invest 99L has an excellent blueprint for development, and this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone that undergoes rapid intensification, which could take many by surprise heading into the new week.

In the lower levels, the circulation is already pretty well defined, with the blueprint for future spiral banding solidly in place. In the upper levels, winds are very light, and increasingly anticyclonic. Throughout the column, the air is moist, and relatively free of the dry air intrusions which have plagued so many other tropical features this season.

As of 3:00 AM Sunday October 21, 99L was centered near 15N 75W, with maximum sustained winds estimated at around 30 MPH.

This is where to put long range best guesses on intensity and forecast track. Long range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

At present, models are basically unanimous in developing Invest 99L within the next three days, but are very split with regard to its future track.

Edited by MikeC (Mon Oct 22 2012 07:19 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Sandy Forecast Lounge cieldumort Sun Oct 21 2012 03:14 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge jkapust   Wed Oct 24 2012 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge berrywr   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge berrywr   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Fri Oct 26 2012 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Fri Oct 26 2012 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Oct 26 2012 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge berrywr   Fri Oct 26 2012 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Troy C   Wed Oct 24 2012 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 22 2012 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Mon Oct 22 2012 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 23 2012 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 23 2012 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 23 2012 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 23 2012 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 23 2012 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Wed Oct 24 2012 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Wed Oct 24 2012 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 26 2012 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge HobbyistinNH   Fri Oct 26 2012 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Oct 26 2012 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge HobbyistinNH   Fri Oct 26 2012 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Oct 26 2012 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 27 2012 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sat Oct 27 2012 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge HobbyistinNH   Sat Oct 27 2012 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 27 2012 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 12:23 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:29 AM
. * * Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? berrywr   Sun Oct 28 2012 03:46 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? Random Chaos   Sun Oct 28 2012 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 03:59 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? cieldumort   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? MichaelA   Sun Oct 28 2012 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? Random Chaos   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? Random Chaos   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:46 PM
. * * Sandy: Subtropical Hurricane cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2012 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Sandy: Subtropical Hurricane HobbyistinNH   Mon Oct 29 2012 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Sandy: Subtropical Hurricane ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 29 2012 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Oct 24 2012 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Thu Oct 25 2012 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Thu Oct 25 2012 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Thu Oct 25 2012 03:04 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Thu Oct 25 2012 03:47 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 25 2012 07:05 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 25 2012 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 25 2012 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 23 2012 03:33 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Tue Oct 23 2012 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge doug   Tue Oct 23 2012 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge doug   Tue Oct 23 2012 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Tue Oct 23 2012 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge bobbutts   Mon Oct 22 2012 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Oct 22 2012 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 22 2012 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Mon Oct 22 2012 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Brewing Up Two More Invests ftlaudbob   Sun Oct 21 2012 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 21 2012 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Oct 21 2012 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sun Oct 21 2012 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge doug   Sun Oct 21 2012 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Sun Oct 21 2012 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Oct 22 2012 11:22 AM

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