Sandy Forecast Lounge - FLHurricane.com

If Mike and Ed will allow me some latitude here. I'm going to continue to post Forecast Discussions due to the Critical nature of the Hurricane Sandy/ FrankenStorm event.
I'm not sure how many readers that we may have in the Region. But I feel the information is there to be relayed on to the general public that might not receive it otherwise.

FXUS01 KWBC 272101
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

VALID 00Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 00Z TUE OCT 30 2012

...A DANGEROUS STORM IN HURRICANE SANDY LURKS OFF THE EAST COAST...

...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS UP
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK.

...STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...

OF COURSE THE MAJOR STORY THROUGH MONDAY IS HURRICANE SANDY WHICH
HAD BEEN UPGRADED TO SUCH A STATUS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE OUTER
BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO STRADDLE THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
WHERE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EXPECTS THIS SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY 1 RATING THROUGH MONDAY WHILE GENERALLY
TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTH. BY MONDAY EVENING...HURRICANE SANDY IS
FORECAST TO TAKE A HARD TURN TO THE LEFT IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
SUCH A TRAJECTORY WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE COASTLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.
AS EXPECTED WITH ANY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...HEAVY RAIN...STRONG
WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT STORM SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SYSTEM. BUT WHAT MAKES SANDY DIFFERENT IS THE FACT IT WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY
INVIGORATE THE CYCLONE AND FURTHER EXPAND ITS VAST WIND FIELD. IN
ADDITION...LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE FULL MOON STAGE OF THE
LUNAR CYCLE WHICH FAVORS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES. CURRENTLY IT
APPEARS MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED
BY THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM. OVERALL...THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST AT www.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD BEEN MARCHING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES HAS QUICKLY COME TO A HALT. THE
BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SANDY
BOUNDED BY AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION FROM UPSTATE
NEW YORK DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WINDS BEGIN RESPONDING TO
HURRICANE SANDY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION. BY MONDAY...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL
SPILL DOWN TO EXPERIENCE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. UP TO A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW IS
CURRENTLY BEING FORECASTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BY THE HPC
WINTER WEATHER DESK.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 28 2012 12:27 AM)

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