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Archives 2010s >> 2013 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2013
      Fri Mar 08 2013 12:09 AM

SST trends over the past couple of months and NCEP projections suggest that 2013 will quickly evolve into an ENSO neutral year. SSTs are expected to be above normal in the western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea for all but the latter part of the 2013 hurricane season.

The best analog years, 1968 and 2006, hint at a season of below normal activity, however, the warmer than normal SST expectations should increase the activity to more of a normal season. An above normal level of activity no longer seems as likely as it did in January. With those somewhat conflicting considerations, I'll lower my initial forecast for the season to 11 named storms, 7 hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes. Other less representative analog years are 1990 and 2001.

CSU will issue their initial numerical forecast on April 10th and TSR will update their initial December outlook on April 5th. You can issue your own guesstimate for the season in this thread anytime between now and the start of the 2013 season on June 1st - and update your numbers as often as you wish.
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator Fri Mar 08 2013 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 31 2013 08:34 PM
. * * Outlook for 2013 - Final Results Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 25 2013 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 vpbob21   Fri May 31 2013 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Doombot!   Fri May 31 2013 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 IMTechspec   Thu May 30 2013 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Lamar-Plant City   Thu May 30 2013 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Bloodstar   Fri May 31 2013 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Lamar-Plant City   Fri May 31 2013 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 DMFischer   Thu May 30 2013 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 cieldumort   Mon May 27 2013 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 cieldumort   Tue May 28 2013 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 26 2013 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 JimB   Sun May 26 2013 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Joeyfl   Sun May 26 2013 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 ftlaudbob   Mon May 27 2013 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 SchexStorm   Mon May 27 2013 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 gsand   Sun May 12 2013 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Wingman51   Mon May 13 2013 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 weatherhead   Mon May 13 2013 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 CarolinaGurl   Tue May 21 2013 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 stormtiger   Tue May 21 2013 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Kigeliakitten   Sat May 11 2013 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 beachcrafts   Thu May 02 2013 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 rmbjoe1954   Wed Mar 20 2013 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Mar 08 2013 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Apr 05 2013 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 03 2013 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 GlenJohnson   Sat May 04 2013 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Hurricane29   Sat May 11 2013 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 MikeCAdministrator   Tue May 28 2013 07:52 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Fletch   Tue May 28 2013 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 dolfinatic   Tue May 28 2013 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Storm Hunter   Tue May 28 2013 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 eulogia   Wed May 29 2013 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 10 2013 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 rmbjoe1954   Wed Apr 10 2013 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 10 2013 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 doug   Wed May 01 2013 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 MichaelA   Wed May 01 2013 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 JoshuaK   Sat Apr 27 2013 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 B.C.Francis   Mon Mar 11 2013 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Mar 12 2013 07:51 AM

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