MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Last Advisory Written on Barbara
Wed May 29 2013 07:29 AM
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4:00 PM CDT May 30 Update
Barbara's surface circulation is no longer sufficient to qualify the system as a tropical cyclone, and the last advisory on TD Barbara has been written.
The remnant circulation associated with former Hurricane Barbara is now visible on high res satellite continuing north into the Gulf of Mexico.
Convection over x Barbara continues to wax and wane, and with the disturbance back over warm waters and under net effective shear running less than 20 knots, it is somewhat possible that it becomes the impetus for a new tropical cyclone. Should this occur, it would now be given an Atlantic number/name, being that the last advisory on eastern Pacific Barbara has been written.
Ciel
{{StormLinks|90L|90|1|2013|90|90L}}
7:00 AM CDT May 30 Update
Nothing new with Barbara as of now, even if it does survive the crossing into the Bay of Campeche, the strong shear there should keep much from occurring. Discussion of Barbara and its crossing or remnants can be found in the Forecast Lounge.
Tropical Depression Barbara is moving from the Eastern Pacific hurricane Basin into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico, if it survives it will maintain itself into the Atlantic basin, and would maintain the name Barbara, which would be a first. The Atlantic naming still will start with Andrea when a storm forms there. Shear in the bay of Campeche is high, and will likely keep Barbara weak and from doing much more than some rainfall, the hurricane center's forecast is for it to dissipate.
4:00 AM CDT May 30 Update
Record-setting east Pac Hurricane Barbara has just about finished crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and within just the past two hours or so has shown strong signs of rebuilding deep convection atop its apparently still intact Low Level Circulation. If this trend continues for a little while longer, NHC will almost definitely begin Atlantic advisories on Barbara, making this system that basin's first tropical cyclone of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Shear over Barbara is running a favorable 8-16 knots, and looks to at least initially stay that way when the cyclone, or its remnants, first enters the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico (southern Bay of Campeche). Combined with very warm SSTs, moistening mid to upper levels, and a supportive MJO phase, it is also now very conceivable that Tropical Depression Barbara does become a tropical storm once again, with watches and warnings going up for the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
In the nearer term, the main concern with Barbara is the continuation of very heavy rain, which has been producing deadly flash flooding, especially over the mountainous parts of the isthmus, and this will continue for some time to come whether or not the tropical cyclone dissipates later today.
Ciel
3:00 PM CDT May 29 Update
East Pac Barbara has become a hurricane and is now making landfall along the west coast of extreme southeastern Mexico.
An eye feature became pronounced today, and is nestled within very cold cloud tops. Just prior to landfall, T numbers out of SAB were running 4.5, suggesting the hurricane was still strengthening into landfall.
More on Hurricane Barbara can presently be read here, in the Other Storm Basins forum. Should Barbara enter the Gulf of Mexico as currently forecast, and become an Invest or numbered tropical cyclone (possible, but not forecast) we will be following its future travels in the Atlantic based forums.
Ciel
Original Update
The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins this Saturday, with not too much going on initially in the basin. Activity in the Atlantic may be slow for June, but likely will pick up into July and the best time to watch is mid August into October.
If anything were to develop in June, the most likely spot is in the western Caribbean, where currently a good area of convection can be found, but not much support for development.
Flhurricane generally limits ourselves to Atlantic systems, but of interest is an Eastern Pacific storm.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season started back on May 15th, and the second storm, Barbara, is nearing the southern coast of Mexico and hurricane watches are up, since there is a slight possibility that Barbara could gain hurricane strength just before landfall, as the system seems to be intensifying fairly rapidly.
A special advisory was recently issued raising hurricane warnings for the coast of the Gulf of the Tehuantepec, indicating Hurricane Conditions are expected within 24-36 hours. Those in that area of Mexico should make all needed preparations.
Puero Angel, MX Radar
More information on Barbara can be found at the National Hurricane Center's website
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