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Archives 2010s >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Posts: 576

Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
Sat Jul 06 2013 02:56 PM

Hello - some personal obs:

Low SAL in its immediate vicinity and ahead of its current trajectory; large plume of SAL lurks N, however, so not much wiggle room.

Despite low SAL, dry air alone does encircle the Invest envelope. This can be overcome by rigorous internal processes associate with quasi-coupled ocean/air consistent with TS modeling.

Shear is low. There are moderate easterlies in the mid and upper levels in the region of the Invest, however, the Invest's movement along with those vectors is making for a bit of SRS favorable environment, and low relative shear.

Centroid blob of convection is nearly collocated with the perceived axis of rotation associated with at least the mid levels. According to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html ...they do not have a floater yet focused on Invest 95, so it is harder to make a more discrete analysis.

I do not believe the Atlantic is as conducive to early curving seaward, as the scenario of abundant subtropical ridging currently is ubiquitous around the Basin. There is a weakness of sort at around 50W, but Invest 95 is too far S [most likely] to be picked up by it. Moreover, most middle and extended guidance suggest that only after a brief and partial dismantling, the Bermuda ridge might restrengthen. It could turn out precarious if a TC were to mature as it neared 70W, so long as there is a block N, and notable weakness in the geopotential medium along 80 W. Those 2 circumstances are A and B in the list of getting a threat all the way across. Lots of time.

John

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Chantal Lounge	MikeC	Sat Jul 06 2013 02:56 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	RevUp	Sun Jul 07 2013 07:44 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	ftlaudbob	Sun Jul 07 2013 11:10 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jul 08 2013 09:17 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MichaelA	Mon Jul 08 2013 11:42 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jul 08 2013 12:46 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jul 08 2013 02:18 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	doug	Mon Jul 08 2013 04:07 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MikeC	Tue Jul 09 2013 12:14 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	Random Chaos	Tue Jul 09 2013 05:34 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MikeC	Tue Jul 09 2013 07:07 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	danielw	Tue Jul 09 2013 07:36 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	Owlguin	Tue Jul 09 2013 11:12 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MikeC	Tue Jul 09 2013 02:10 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MikeC	Tue Jul 09 2013 02:25 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	ftlaudbob	Tue Jul 09 2013 07:41 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	doug	Wed Jul 10 2013 09:33 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	ftlaudbob	Wed Jul 10 2013 10:53 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	mikethewreck	Wed Jul 10 2013 11:39 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	doug	Wed Jul 10 2013 12:29 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	mikethewreck	Thu Jul 11 2013 11:40 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Jul 11 2013 11:51 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	JoshuaK	Thu Jul 11 2013 12:33 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	mikethewreck	Sat Jul 13 2013 02:28 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	Ed Dunham	Sat Jul 13 2013 11:54 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	typhoon_tip	Sat Jul 06 2013 02:56 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	danielw	Sun Jul 07 2013 05:48 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MikeC	Sun Jul 07 2013 08:07 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MichaelA	Sun Jul 07 2013 09:12 AM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MikeC	Sun Jul 07 2013 12:26 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	ftlaudbob	Sun Jul 07 2013 05:32 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	MikeC	Sun Jul 07 2013 06:52 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	ftlaudbob	Sun Jul 07 2013 07:04 PM
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge	ftlaudbob	Sat Jul 06 2013 01:44 PM

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