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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
Td#2
ADV#1 10:00 pm EDT
9.1N 41.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic
      Sun Jul 07 2013 10:42 PM

It is important to remember not to be fooled by satellite alone. We have seen dramatic imagery in the past show comparatively weakly closed circulation in the llvs upon RECON fixes. RECON is scheduled for Monday afternoon.

Having said that ... the TW currently does show significant cyclonic twirl, and there is a deep convective feature near the center persisting. That certainly is not hurting prospects.

Currently upper level wind analysis suggests general divergent motion over the TW.

SAL does not appear to be a limiting factor at the present time. Not including SAL, there is a lot of dry air surrounding, but the weakness of the system at this time does not appear to be actively ingesting this air mass. As far as the SAL component of this, it seems to be eroding away as the TW moves west. This type of system would benefit from remaining compact until it gets west of ~55W.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Jul 07 2013 10:44 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in Central Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Sun Jul 07 2013 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 08 2013 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic ftlaudbob   Mon Jul 08 2013 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 08 2013 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic ftlaudbob   Sun Jul 07 2013 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic ftlaudbob   Sun Jul 07 2013 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2013 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2013 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 07 2013 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic doug   Sun Jul 07 2013 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic MichaelA   Sun Jul 07 2013 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2013 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 07 2013 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2013 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2013 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2013 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2013 02:45 AM

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