MikeC
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Watching two Low Chance Areas
Mon Jul 08 2013 11:06 PM
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2:30 PM EDT 22 July 2013 Update
Watching a new wave in far eastern Atlantic, new article to come tonight.
At 22/18Z, Invest 98L was slowly consolidating its increasing convection near 12.2N 18.9W, or southeast of the Cape Verde Islands just off the west coast of Africa. Pressure was 1009MB, SST is 28.5C, sustained winds were at 25 knots and movement was to the west at 12 knots. The system is currently moving through an area of light windshear so some additional development is possible in the next couple of days. Future movement should be to the west and west northwest with the system beginning to encounter an increase in westerly upper windshear by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
{{StormLinks|98L|98|4|2013|98|98L (Wave in East Atlantic)}}
7:30 AM EDT 13 July 2013 Update
A small low pressure area appears to be trying to form in the northern Gulf, but proximity to land will likely keep it able to develop, 10% chance based on the hurricane center. This low is associated with an inverted trough over the Tennessee river valley south.
The remnants of Chantal continue to persist as they drift around, mostly toward the north, 20% development chance there, but still more likely to never develop.
2:25 PM EDT 11 July 2013 Update
Chantal's remnants have split, one over southern Cuba, and the other north of Hispaniola, the area as a whole has a 30% chance to redevelop, so it'll remain worth watching for a bit.
{{EastFloridaRadar}}
{{NortheastGulfRadar}}
7:30 AM EDT 11 July 2013 Update
Chantal's fast forward motion and shear and the influence of a TUTT destroyed the core of the system as it neared Hispaniola. Recon could not find a center. It appears most of the remnant will likely stay east of Florida for the most part.
It is bringing heavy rain to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, however.
There are very low chances it could regenerate, but it will be watched just in case.
8:00 AM EDT 10 July 2013 Update
Tropical Storm Chantal fell apart greatly overnight, and recon was barely able to find any winds, it's almost an open wave at this point, however there is still some convection firing around the center this morning that will keep it alive at least through the morning. If the convection persists it may hold on as a weak storm or depression in the near term. If not, it will likely be dropped.
Recon is en route now to check up on Chantal, and if it can't find a center, watches and warnings will likely be discontinued.
Partially because of the weaker system and strong ridging to the north it continues to move west north west as a rapid 29mph, and the forecast track has shifted westward,
If Chantal does fall apart the remnants will likely bring some rain to Florida, and Haiti and the Dominican Republic will see rain regardless.
8:30 PM EDT 9 July 2013 Update
Tropical Storm Chantal surprised a few folks today when it got up to 65MPH winds per Recon. Currently another recon flight is out in the storm, but has not found winds like that yet, as some of the convection around the system collapsed earlier this afternoon. At quick glance, it appears to have weakened since earlier in the day.
Convection still is firing around the center of Chantal, so the system is still alive. The forecast takes it right over the middle of Hispaniola, with the dirty side mostly in the Dominican Republic. Going over the island will likely take a punch out of Chantal. Beyond that, the forecast cone gets very uncertain, as a lot depends on how far west Chantal makes it before turning north.
Even then, the ridge may build back in and kick the storm westward at whatever point it is. At the least it'll be a rainmaker for someone along the east coast from Florida up to the Carolinas.
In the short term, though. Tropical Storm Warnings are still up for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane Watches are up as a precaution in case Chantal strengthens more before landfall in the Dominican Republic tomorrow afternoon.
Model runs have been a bit back and forth today, and seem to be having some trouble with the fast movement of the storm. The hurricane center's track (and especially cone area) seems good, however. This cone includes most of Florida, Coastal Georgia, South Carolina, and Southeastern North Carolina, so it will need to be watched in that area. Because of the fast forward motion, Chantal could be east of Florida Saturday.
7AM EDT 9 July 2013 Update
Tropical Storm Chantal is a bit more ragged in appearance this morning but the center is easily seen on Barbados radar.
A tropical storm warning continues for many of the eastern Caribbean Islands as well as Puerto Rico and the southern Dominican Republic coast.
It's still moving quickly toward the west northwest and this is expected to continue for the next day and a half as it rides along the ridge.
The track takes it over the Dominican Republic Wednesday late afternoon into Thursday morning, and brings up some Flooding concerns for Haiti as well, the positive note is that it still will likely be moving fairly quickly, albeit a bit slower. The mountains three will likely weaken, if not destroy, Chantal.
The low currently near the Bahamas is likely what will cause the ridge to break down enough for it to allow Chantal to move more northward, but with some models indicating it will quickly build back up and basically trap Chantal near the Bahamas.
After this it depends on how strong the ridge is, but it appears it may be strong enough to kick the storm back to the west toward Florida or the Southeast Sunday into Monday. all this greatly depends on the exact timing of the storm. Even if the storm does not survive, the remnant could bring much rain to Florida.
Even though the official forecast shows strengthening while Chantal is in the Caribbean, in the past many systems entering the east Caribbean struggle, but it is likely to stay organized through that. Some of the models lose Chantal after crossing Hispaniola, which would be the best outcome.
In short those along the east coast of Florida and parts of the Southeast US will want to keep close watch on Chantal to see what occurs.
Beyond this, a few more waves in the Atlantic will likely be worth watching later.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Chantal continues to move toward the Caribbean at a fairly fast rate of 26mph toward the west northwest.
Because of the speed, Tropical Storm warnings are up for Barbados, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, and southern coast of the Dominican Republic.
Additionally Tropical storm watches are up for the Virgin Islands, St. Vincent, Vieques and Culebra, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and all of Haiti.
Once past Haiti the official forecast takes it into the Bahamas as a tropical depression after being torn up by the mountains. However, if the system remains intact, it does have more favorable conditions near the Bahamas for development.
The current pressure vs wind ratio is mainly due to it being embedded in a ridge, it's not typical to see a 50MPH tropical storm with such high pressures otherwise.
Although a lot could change over the next few days, the fast forward motion, along with land interaction will most likely keep Chantal weak, It is still slightly more likely that it will stay east of Florida,but it cannot be ruled out at this time since some of the models show a collapse in steering currents over the Bahamas, which means we in Florida will need to watch this one very closely, as well as the Bahamas and the islands in the watch/warnings area Other waves east of Chantal will need to be watched later on.
Barbados Radar Chantal Approach Recording
(Alt Style)
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Chantal|03|3|2013|03|Chantal}}
{{StormLinks|96L|96|3|2013|96|96L (Former Chantal}}
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