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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
      Tue Jul 09 2013 11:36 AM

HWRF shreds Chantal over the Hispaniola. Remains are weak and move toward a SC NC, south of the Outer Banks area. Max wind speed for this run of the HWRF is 69 knots.

GFDL veers north before being shredded over Hispaniola and moves into the Western Atlantic just shy of the Turks and Caicos. Movement more toward the Outer Banks, NC than HWRF. But not by much.
Max forecast wind speed for this run is 96 knots.

The GFS and it's Ensembles right now are in an area from Charleston, SC to the western tip of Cuba. That's the Cone of Certainty area for the most part.

I'm somewhat concerned with the "Left Turn Chantal" scenario seen in nearly all of the GFS models and in a few of the NHC's model.

I saw a flare and hover, stall over the Bahamas area on yesterday's run. Similar to a hummingbird or helicopter moving up to a location and then abruptly coming to a hover. Easiest way to explain it. I'm still waiting on the next few days runs to come up with a better solution.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Chantal Lounge MikeCAdministrator Tue Jul 09 2013 11:36 AM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge RevUp   Sun Jul 07 2013 11:44 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Jul 08 2013 03:10 AM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 08 2013 01:17 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MichaelA   Mon Jul 08 2013 03:42 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 08 2013 04:46 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 08 2013 06:18 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge doug   Mon Jul 08 2013 08:07 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 04:14 AM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge Random Chaos   Tue Jul 09 2013 09:34 AM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 11:07 AM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 11:36 AM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge Owlguin   Tue Jul 09 2013 03:12 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 06:10 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 06:25 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge ftlaudbob   Tue Jul 09 2013 11:41 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge doug   Wed Jul 10 2013 01:33 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 10 2013 02:53 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge mikethewreck   Wed Jul 10 2013 03:39 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge doug   Wed Jul 10 2013 04:29 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge mikethewreck   Thu Jul 11 2013 03:40 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Thu Jul 11 2013 03:51 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge JoshuaK   Thu Jul 11 2013 04:33 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge mikethewreck   Sat Jul 13 2013 06:28 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 14 2013 03:54 AM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge typhoon_tip   Sat Jul 06 2013 06:56 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2013 09:48 AM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2013 12:07 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MichaelA   Sun Jul 07 2013 01:12 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2013 04:26 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge ftlaudbob   Sun Jul 07 2013 09:32 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 07 2013 10:52 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge ftlaudbob   Sun Jul 07 2013 11:04 PM
. * * Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge ftlaudbob   Sat Jul 06 2013 05:44 PM

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