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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean
      Wed Jul 10 2013 11:04 AM

Wrote a long post today about the pluses and minuses of Chantal's very existence and future. If you make a spreadsheet of pros and cons logically it should never have gotten this far nor should it still be there firing up this morning on the floater as if it is sending up red flares for the NHC to find it. Easily found..go figure.

Positives
1) Her tenancity of existing and making it across the ocean in Early July from an early CV wave which is usually one that "wets up the atmosphere for future waves" and nothing more. Upgraded in the Atlantic and still there in the Eastern Caribbean the "graveyard of storms" and not dying is her main positive point in her favor.

Negatives
1) Extremely fast forward speed. When was the last time a storm didn't go less than 25 MPH forward speed ever? And, last night it was trucking at 30 mph forward speed...which is more than many naysayers feel her winds were last night.

2) Shear...always there...that's why we call it the "graveyard of storms"

3) SAL and dry air she developed in and has been traveling with for days.

4) CLIMO

Any balance sheet would easily say she should not be there at all ....and yet she is..

Recon found enough data to keep her as a weak Tropical Storm with a cone that continues to call South Florida's name and yet...she is moving west still very rapidly. A very complicated storm to work with and model output isn't always helpful and the NHC is doing the best it can and that's pretty good in my opinion with this storm. LOCATION...16.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145859.shtml?5day#contents

Worth noting the mets in NC have been saying we would see moisture from Chantal all morning..seems they buy into that general forecast cone.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching two Low Chance Areas MikeCAdministrator Wed Jul 10 2013 11:04 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L and area near the Bahamas. danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 17 2013 03:13 AM
. * * INVEST 97L and area near the Bahamas. danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 16 2013 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Watching two Low Chance Areas doug   Sat Jul 13 2013 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of Chantal doug   Fri Jul 12 2013 07:33 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of Chantal berrywr   Thu Jul 11 2013 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of Chantal MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 11 2013 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of Chantal Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 11 2013 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Remnants of Chantal Lamar-Plant City   Thu Jul 11 2013 10:33 AM
. * * Remnants of Chantal Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 11 2013 10:21 AM
. * * chantel north of hispanola Robert   Wed Jul 10 2013 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 10 2013 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean berrywr   Wed Jul 10 2013 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Chantal Barely a Storm in the Caribbean berrywr   Wed Jul 10 2013 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 10 2013 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean LoisCane   Wed Jul 10 2013 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Chantal Barely a Storm in the Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jul 10 2013 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean OrlandoDan   Wed Jul 10 2013 05:41 AM
. * * Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 10 2013 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean cieldumort   Wed Jul 10 2013 01:51 AM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Into the Caribbean Sea typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 10 2013 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Into the Caribbean Sea berrywr   Tue Jul 09 2013 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Jul 09 2013 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean typhoon_tip   Tue Jul 09 2013 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Into the Caribbean Sea Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean Hawkeyewx   Tue Jul 09 2013 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 09 2013 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean LoisCane   Mon Jul 08 2013 11:37 PM

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